Cold spells in Belgium under near-term climate change

This study examines the implications of milder winters in North-Western Europe on power systems. The analysis focuses on observed weather data in Belgium and neighboring countries from 1980 to 2019, specifically assessing the occurrence of extremely cold days. The researchers compare this temperature data with simulations of power system adequacy, considering the country's expected 2025 power mix and historical weather conditions from 1982 to 2015. The study finds a significant correlation between simulated power shortage events and extremely cold days, while also noting a robust decrease in the probability of such cold days since the 1980s. Based on these findings, the study recommends that future power system adequacy simulations consider climate change effects on meteorological data and conduct sensitivity tests to ensure accurate estimations, given the observed warming trend in recent decades.