BClimate

bclimate, led by Prof. Wim Thiery, is a research group with enthusiastic members who focus on extreme events, climate change impacts, energy meteorology, and land-atmosphere interactions. Hereto the team employs global climate modelling, land surface modelling, field observations and ensemble data mining. Much of our research builds on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its land surface module, the Community land Model (CLM).


From left to right (roughly): Vincent Ogembo, Greta Shum, Amaya Camila Trigoso BarrientosRosa PietroiustiWim ThieryNi Li, Loreline Faugier, Cristina DeiddaDerrick Muheki, Marie Cavitte and Shannon De Roos. Not on picture: Sebastian SterlSeppe Lampe and Axel Deijns.


Current Research Topics

In the last decades, global warming has increased the frequency, duration and magnitude of different extreme events, such as the heat extremes. It is anticipated that this trend will continue under future scenarios, which may cause the inequities between different generations in exposure to climate extremes. Being a key player in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), the team provides simulations with CLM and uses ISIMIP simulations to perform detection and attribution of hydrological and limnological variables. Based on these outputs, we try to analyse the intergenerational inequalities in expose to climate extremes, including heat extreme and water scarcity. In the next step, more work will be done with specific focuses on different events, such as heatwave and water scarcity, and the team will also link such studies with legislation work.

As a widely used research tool, some processes are still missing or poorly implemented in CESM2. To improve the accuracy of the simulations, more realistic representations will be needed. The team is a very active participant in the development of CESM2 and some developments have alredy been included in the new version of the model. As of 2022, we have already implemented the dynamic lake and reservoir, irrigation module including different methods, and human water use in the model.

land management practices, such as af- / deforestation and irrigation, have substantial impacts on climate. To better understand these impacts, models are widely used. As a key participant of LAMACLIMA project, the team provides the simulation outputs of CESM2 to detect the climate responds to various scenarios. The team also have a special focus on irrigation, as it is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. However, this evolution might be constrained by future water scarcity, as water resources could become regionally depleted following changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle under rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas levels and ongoing water use. This line of research is continued by developing reservoir and irrigation parameterisations in CESM and quantifying impacts of land cover and management change on climate.

The team uses high-resolution hybrid climatological and hydrological data products to map renewable energy resources across Africa, model flexible power mix scenarios for the region, and provide energy policy advice on this basis. The open-source REVUB model developed to this end improves scientific understanding of potential synergies between various renewable energy sources and supports decision making in Africa.


Policy engagement

Our team frequently engages with policy makers on climate change matters. For instance, in 2020 the team conducted a study of the evolution of cold extremes in NW-Europe (‘Winter is leaving’), which some members presented to the Belgian Minister for Energy and the Federal parliament. Based on this report, a new rule has been adopted by all European grid regulators, requiring the incorporation of climate change in grid adequacy planning. Finally, the team actively contributed to the 2021 revisions of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of Ivory Coast, Gabon, Niger, Mali, Cameroon, and Eswatini. This consulting directly builds on pioneering research of Wim Thiery and Sebastian Sterl (PhD in BCLIMATE group 2021).


bclimate - Publications

bclimate - GitHub